What a second Trump term could mean for E&C programs

I recently found myself on a compliance roundtable alongside Ethena CEO Roxanne Petraeus and CLO Brandis Anderson discussing the potential impact of a second Trump administration on Ethics & Compliance (E&C) programs. It’s no surprise that uncertainty about regulatory and enforcement priorities was a top concern, followed by how to identify — and let’s face it, mitigate — new risks.

Leaving politics aside as much as we could, we’ve tried to identify areas that fall into the “highly likely, good to prepare” category by looking at the approach taken by Trump I, combined with some speculation for some quick takes. Of course, being Ethena, we also have some ideas on how to handle these challenges. Here’s what we came up with!

Looking into the crystal ball: 7 predictions

Prediction #1: Export controls, sanctions, and money laundering will almost certainly be a priority. 

During Trump I, export controls became a major foreign policy tool. The total bans imposed on Huawei and ZTE were White House-driven and overall technology controls were tightened. The Biden administration continued this focus with an uptick in enforcement cases; it’s likely to continue and expand under Trump II.

Prediction #2: FCPA enforcement is unlikely to fade or significantly weaken.

During Trump I, enforcement remained steady and slightly increased. And, given that most enforcement actions are multi-jurisdictional, it’s likely that cross-border enforcement will continue.

Prediction #3: Antitrust enforcement will still focus on Big Tech, but with less aggression.

While the Trump administration pursued some high-profile cases against Big Tech firms like Google and Facebook, the approach was narrower compared to the Biden administration. A second Trump term might continue targeting perceived monopolistic behavior in tech, but with less emphasis on structural remedies like breaking up companies.

The Trump II team is also likely to be friendlier to Silicon Valley — particularly defense tech companies. Stand by for revocation of Biden’s executive order governing artificial intelligence (AI), along with other regulatory efforts.

Prediction #4: A hands-off approach to regulating crypto and fintech.

Trump I saw a significant drop in public enforcement actions, regulations, and fines. Major leadership changes (CFPB, FDIC, and other agencies), a roll-back of Biden rules, and more receptivity to fintech and non-traditional financial institutions make it likely that a more tech-friendly approach will be the case for Trump II. 

A Trump-appointed SEC, for example, might adopt a more hands-off approach to regulating cryptocurrencies and fintech companies, favoring innovation and growth over stringent compliance. But anti-money laundering, sanctions, and export controls enforcements are likely to increase. 

Prediction #5: Domestic mergers & acquisitions will be encouraged.

Biden’s regulators, such as FTC Chair Lina Khan and DOJ Antitrust Division head Jonathan Kanter, have pursued a robust antitrust agenda, challenging mergers that reduce competition in any market segment, including labor. Assuming both Khan and Kanter are replaced with more business-oriented commissioners are added, the climate for M&A is likely to lead to the rollback of some agency initiatives. A second Trump administration would likely adopt a more permissive stance on M&A, reducing antitrust scrutiny for most deals.

On the other hand, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) has been expanding its scope and is likely to play an increasingly significant role ensuring national security concerns are fully vetted in M&A transactions.

Prediction #6: Pro-business Securities & Exchange, with rollbacks of ESG and climate rules.

Biden’s SEC, led by Gary Gensler, emphasized robust regulation and aggressive enforcement to protect investors and ensure market integrity. Gensler will be resigning on January 20th, 2025, and the terms of two other commissioners expire within the next two years.

Expect limited rulemaking activity during Trump II, with a focus on revisiting and potentially rolling back regulations implemented during the Biden administration. Trump II would also likely reverse or weaken Biden-era ESG disclosure requirements, arguing that such mandates impose unnecessary costs on businesses.

Trump’s intention to reverse Biden administration rules, in addition to Elon Musk’s new role, are likely to benefit the crypto industry, weaken climate change disclosure, and generally take a Wall Street-oriented approach.  

Prediction #7: Reduced (or even eliminated) support for federal DEI initiatives.

Current DEI initiatives are already under fire and are likely to be substantially affected; particularly in the federal government. Trump II would likely rescind Biden-era executive orders and policies that mandate or encourage DEI initiatives across federal agencies. For example:

• Biden’s 2021 executive order promoting equity in federal agencies could be repealed
• Training programs related to unconscious bias, systemic racism, or white privilege might be explicitly prohibited, echoing Trump’s 2020 executive order banning “divisive concepts” in workplace training

DEI language might also be replaced with terms like “merit-based hiring” or “equal opportunity,” de-emphasizing systemic inequities.

How to prepare your E&C program for these potential changes

To navigate these potential changes in 2025, compliance professionals should:

Strengthen your internal ethics culture.

Research has consistently shown that E&C programs played a critical role in helping their organizations cope with the stresses and challenges of the pandemic, (despite dire predictions that controls and requirements might fade into the woodwork). According to published surveys, more than 95% of  E&C respondents said that their ethical culture became stronger as a result of their pandemic experience. 

Staying true to values and proactively mitigating compliance risks will be essential in the face of change. In particular, setting the tone at the top can help employees make ethical decisions even in the face of mixed messages.

Monitor emerging risks.

Be on the lookout for new risks, wherever they may arise. In Trump I, the bans on Chinese company Huawei’s ability to buy U.S. technology and sell its equipment from U.S. telecom networks initially were announced on X (formerly Twitter), then implemented by executive order. In March 2023, the Biden administration signaled a major enforcement crackdown on the use of encrypted apps to do business in its updates to the ECCP. 

Given the amount of change, pivots and new initiatives already announced, E&C teams should focus on identifying new risks (or old ones that have become more severe) and proactively modify policies, procedures and training to respond to them.

Continue to rely on the ECCP for guidance.

Despite the new Administration’s intent to revamp the Department of Justice, the Evaluation of Corporate Compliance Programs (ECCP) guidance is unlikely to be scrapped or nullified. The ECCP began in 2017 under Trump I and has been amended multiple times, most recently in September 2024. 

The ECCP is not a regulation — it’s a guide for prosecutors to use when evaluating whether an organization has an effective ethics and compliance program for purposes of leniency under the Sentencing Guidelines in the event of misconduct. Our guess is that it will remain an important summary of what regulators expect in an effective compliance program.

Focus on outputs, not just inputs.

One important change in focus that the September 2024 ECCP guidance made very clear is that E&C programs need to focus more on outputs, not just inputs:

Prosecutors, in short, should examine whether the compliance program is being disseminated to, and understood by, employees in practice in order to decide whether the compliance program is “truly effective”. 

In other words, it’s not enough to simply count the number of learners trained, the number of policies revised, and/or how many times the Code has been updated. It’s critical to show that your E&C program has real-time data indicating what is “understood by employees in practice”, not just how many completed a training course. 

The bottom line

Ethena helps its clients with flexible, employee-friendly resources that can measure impact. Our training courses come with short, sample questions soliciting employee feedback and testing knowledge that can be broken down by country, operations and other categories. Plus, our test-out, role-based training, adaptive learnings and certifications can help with training fatigue.

What are you waiting for? Snag a free sample of our training below!